Table of Contents

• Flag Sends
• Comings & Goings
• Charity Tracking
• 1SL’s Youtube Channel
• TRMN & COVID-19
• Wound Stripe Variance
• Blood Donation Tracking
• Upcoming Events
• April Honors – Awards
• April Honors – Promotions
• Fleet Contacts
• Order of Battle
• Echelon Command Contacts

Flag Sends

This newsletter almost didn’t happen.

As we have spent the last month (or more) in a holding pattern of isolation, I have had a lot of motivation issues. Specifically, not having any. It sucks. And I was all prepared to send out an email apologizing for the lack of newsletter, and chalking it up as another COVID-19 casualty.

But that isn’t something I find acceptable.

It may be old-fashioned, but at my core, I believe that ‘I don’t feel like it’ is not an acceptable excuse. When I accepted this role, it wasn’t to be FCO when I felt like it, or when it was easy, but to do this when it wasn’t easy, when I didn’t feel up to it. So here we are.

I do want to talk a bit about the second step – what comes next. As we are entering May, it is going to be harder and harder to keep people invested in staying home. We are seeing states begin to ease restrictions as well. In the mix of all this, the term ‘herd immunity’ is getting tossed about. I want to look at that, and see about explaining how it works, and why relying on it is, perhaps, not the wise choice.

To start with, what is herd immunity? Herd immunity is the condition achieved when a sufficient percentage of the population is immune to a disease (naturally or via vaccination) that one sick person isn’t able to spread the disease in a meaningful manner. Thus, those not immune are protected by the prevalence of immune peoples.
How does that work in the real world? Well, that takes some science.

Communicability of diseases is expressed as R0, the basic reproduction number. This is used to express the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection (like COVID-19). Seasonal flu has an R0 of between 0.9–2.1. COVID-19 is estimated at 1.4–5.7. This means that one person will infect 1-2 people with the flu, but 1-5 people with COVID-19. By way of comparison, 1 person with measles will infect (an a non-immune population) 12–18 people.

So, the higher the R0 number, the more virulent the disease.

The herd immunity threshold (HIT) scales to the R0 number. The higher R0, the more immune people you need to attain herd immunity. So, to attain the herd immunity threshold, you need 92% – 95% immunity for measles. For the flu, maybe 25%.

For COVID-19, the estimates range between 27% and 74%. This is one of the hard parts about novel viruses – the unknowns are pretty unknown. So, what that means is you need, for sake of argument let’s average these, 50% of the population immune. And there can’t be a vaccine until, at the earliest, April of 2021. Which means we can only achieve herd immunity if some 165,501,325 people get sick.

Illinois has a case death rate over 5%. At that rate, that’s 8,275,066 fatalities. Obviously, that is a wild estimate based on my state’s experience (yours will vary), an average to get the HIT, and nothing weird happening. Kind of horror-show, isn’t it?

That even assumes that antibodies generated by having had the disease confer immunity (which is, actually, a safe assumption based on other corona-type viruses).

I would not rely on herd immunity to protect me, personally.

Your community will vary – we have seen how the disease is expressing differently in different places. There is no one right answer. I am not trying to tell you how to respond, merely providing some information on a topic that is getting a lot of discussion recently.

In related news, Monday, April 27th, a judge in Coal County, IL, ruled that the governor had exceeded his authority in extending the state stay-at-home order until the end of May, and issued a stay. What does that mean? Basically, the Illinois constitution is explicitly clear about declared states of emergency – you get 30 days. I expect the General Assembly will act to extend that power in this case, but for now, that has not happened.

That is a lot of explanation for this next bit. When your state does reopen, I ask that if you have been working in the public during the shut-down, that you consider taking some time before jumping right back into things. My wife, for example, works in a hospital lab, and will be doing COVID-19 tests (not as her main thing, but will be doing it). I won’t be getting together with folk for a bit as a safety measure. Obviously, I cannot order that. But I can ask that you consider your possible exposure, and risk, and think about others before joining in group activities.

We are going to get through this – it’s only been a month, and will, hopefully, only be another month or two. Three months is totally survivable – our ancestors survived so much worse with so much less.

Please keep in touch with each other, your chapter and echelon leaders, and your non-TRMN friends and family. The lack of personal contact is hard on us all, and we owe it to ourselves and each other to mitigate that as much as we are able.

I’ll see you once this is over!

Comings & Goings

To: All Officers, Enlisted, and Civilians in the Grand Alliance
From: Martin A. Lessem, KSK, GCR, GCE, SC, DSO, CGM, Admiral of the Fleet, First Lord of the Admiralty, Grand Duke Lynx, Duke, New Scania
Re: Period of Mourning for Countess Neu Odenwaldkreis

These messages are always hard to write, because they touch so deeply upon all of us. Earlier today we learned of the passing of Lady Gloria J. Thomas-Friedline, the Countess of Neu Odenwaldkreis. At this time of mourning, I wish The Royal Manticoran Navy to stand with Earl Neu Odenwaldkreis and provide him our support as the family we are.

Additionally, I am ordering all running lights for all ships and stations dimmed, and all flags at installations lowered to half-mast, regardless of branch, for the next 30 days.

I am sure Earl Neu Odenwaldkreis appreciates any condolences you wish to send him personally as well.

Martin Lessem, KSK, GCR, GCE, SC, DSO, CGM
Admiral of the Fleet RMN
First Lord of the Admiralty
Grand Duke, Lynx
Duke, New Scania

••••

BuPlan Directive 2004-02
Congratulation to Bruce Crews, HMS Beowulf, on appointment to the position of Yeoman for the Office of Marketing, Branding, and Art within the Bureau of Planning. As a result of his new position and duties, he is hereby promoted to the rank of Petty Officer Second Class, RMN.

••••

BuShips Directive 2004-08

Congratulations to Davi Munroe, HMS Javelin, on his appointment to Bosun, relieving Chief Petty Officer Jim Erikson, RMN, and his brevet to the rank of Chief Petty Officer, RMN.

Flag joins BuShips in thanking outgoing Bosun Chief Petty Officer Jim Erikson for his service.

••••

With the approval of the Sixth Space Lord, effective 20 April, 2020 the Sphinx Forestry Service will now be called the Sphinx Forestry Academy (SFA). The head of the Academy will hold the title of Headmaster.

HMLAC Banturon is hosting a May the 4th Be with You, and we are watching Solo: A Star Wars Story 7pm on Netflix Party, invite code will be announced via Facebook and Discord Servers.

Fleet events listed in bold. Admiralty in bold-italic.

Events canceled due to restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 are crossed out – many will need you to attend next year to keep going! Please consider buying memberships, or refusing refunds, when you are able.

Please send all events to co@gryphonfleet.org, and reference Upcoming Event: in the subject line!